***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.0 14.4 123.1 67.7 53.9 3.9 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.1 13.3 14.5 132.4 69.8 54.2 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.8 14.0 122.9 66.5 54.7 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.8 14.8 112.0 62.4 55.0 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 16.4 14.0 111.1 64.3 54.3 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.8 15.5 12.8 100.5 59.3 52.4 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.7 14.1 130.2 69.1 53.2 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.9 14.7 107.7 61.4 54.5 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.3 14.2 110.2 63.9 54.0 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.1 14.8 109.0 62.5 54.3 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.1 17.9 13.7 110.5 62.6 55.0 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 13.4 13.4 108.2 62.0 54.2 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.1 13.9 107.9 60.0 54.2 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.5 23.6 16.4 119.7 65.8 53.2 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.8 15.8 115.6 64.4 55.9 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.2 13.4 108.5 61.2 53.8 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.9 14.3 128.5 68.3 52.8 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 18.4 15.2 109.4 64.2 53.5 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.4 14.5 14.4 132.1 69.2 54.8 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 17.7 18.3 102.5 61.5 53.6 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.2 13.8 115.0 65.1 54.3 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.6 15.2 130.8 68.9 53.7 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.4 15.2 14.2 127.8 68.3 54.9 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.9 15.1 119.3 67.4 54.3 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.1 12.0 15.4 119.2 65.4 54.1 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.8 18.4 14.4 108.2 61.3 54.6 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 12.2 14.9 122.0 67.0 53.3 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.9 13.8 109.7 62.1 54.6 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.9 31.8 15.8 106.0 62.6 53.0 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.0 12.0 14.5 132.0 69.1 54.4 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------