***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.9 13.2 105.2 62.7 46.9 5.5 8.2 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.1 12.6 12.2 106.4 61.6 48.6 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 4.6 16.5 12.8 105.7 63.4 47.5 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 15.9 14.2 102.9 60.6 48.7 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.4 14.6 12.9 95.6 56.8 46.6 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.4 10.7 85.4 53.5 45.8 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.6 12.3 12.0 103.0 61.1 48.2 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 20.5 12.3 86.5 53.3 45.4 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.6 13.3 12.9 93.4 55.0 46.4 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.1 13.4 12.7 88.6 53.5 45.4 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.0 12.1 11.2 88.1 54.5 45.4 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 12.5 10.8 83.7 52.1 44.7 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.6 10.4 11.1 82.6 51.6 45.2 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.1 21.4 15.4 106.3 59.9 48.3 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 19.2 14.8 104.9 64.0 50.1 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.2 11.0 87.2 53.9 45.2 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.6 11.8 101.1 59.6 48.5 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.3 13.9 93.0 56.2 45.7 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.4 16.4 12.4 108.7 62.3 49.1 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.2 21.8 18.4 99.7 58.7 47.9 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 15.2 12.8 98.0 59.7 46.2 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.7 12.3 102.9 61.5 49.5 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.4 15.7 12.9 110.1 62.1 49.2 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.6 15.4 13.7 98.7 59.4 46.4 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.5 14.2 101.4 61.8 47.2 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.2 12.0 88.3 52.8 46.2 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 10.2 13.4 101.8 61.8 46.8 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.7 18.0 13.0 100.5 60.4 48.8 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 21.3 15.6 98.1 58.7 46.7 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.7 13.9 12.6 106.9 62.9 48.2 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------