***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.9 20.7 153.4 75.0 60.2 5.3 9.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.9 21.6 18.4 145.5 72.9 59.6 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.0 18.5 19.5 147.1 75.7 59.5 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 21.1 29.4 22.9 150.7 77.3 61.4 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 16.8 22.0 21.2 156.1 78.1 62.0 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.3 15.4 18.8 136.8 72.4 60.3 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.8 18.6 146.9 71.6 59.9 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 23.9 32.6 23.1 167.1 79.1 62.6 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.2 17.3 20.9 158.0 77.3 61.9 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 17.2 21.4 21.8 161.7 77.9 62.5 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.8 20.0 21.1 160.2 78.2 63.5 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.9 23.6 21.4 164.1 78.6 63.6 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.9 19.5 19.7 139.8 70.5 61.3 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 23.3 21.8 140.6 72.9 58.7 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.0 14.4 22.1 138.4 71.7 58.2 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 14.5 18.0 19.7 146.0 74.3 61.8 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.6 16.9 17.5 134.6 68.8 58.7 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 20.2 24.4 22.2 156.2 77.6 61.3 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 18.3 20.9 18.4 144.7 73.7 59.3 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 20.7 29.8 28.6 160.9 79.2 61.4 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 13.9 15.1 20.8 153.8 75.7 60.7 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.9 18.5 17.9 129.4 69.5 58.1 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 19.4 22.4 19.1 146.0 74.4 59.6 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.1 21.5 20.7 146.5 75.6 59.6 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 13.6 17.1 22.9 150.1 75.4 60.7 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.2 15.6 20.9 145.6 74.4 61.5 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.3 17.7 21.8 154.0 75.8 61.0 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.6 16.9 21.0 144.7 74.3 59.9 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 28.4 33.6 23.8 154.7 78.1 60.9 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.7 17.1 18.9 148.8 73.7 59.7 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------