***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 11.8 14.4 19.7 232.5 85.6 78.8 0.3 6.2 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 7.7 22.9 19.4 254.0 90.1 79.0 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.7 17.1 18.7 228.7 86.0 77.6 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 11.6 13.7 18.5 172.8 78.1 72.3 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 11.7 14.9 19.0 201.2 83.1 75.9 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 6.0 7.5 16.9 186.2 80.9 74.3 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 9.4 19.9 19.3 242.6 89.3 79.2 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 10.8 15.6 21.7 182.3 79.6 74.3 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 10.3 14.2 18.7 209.0 84.5 76.8 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 10.2 15.8 20.6 196.6 82.5 75.5 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 7.8 11.3 19.1 192.7 80.9 74.9 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.5 13.3 19.4 186.0 79.8 74.8 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 8.9 12.4 20.0 199.4 82.4 76.3 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 21.1 29.2 23.1 226.6 87.1 78.0 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 5.9 7.5 16.4 163.9 77.6 70.3 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 5.9 8.7 20.0 199.4 80.5 75.9 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 9.3 31.1 19.6 247.7 90.5 79.0 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 9.5 16.2 22.2 204.5 84.6 76.5 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 13.0 22.5 19.5 250.0 88.7 78.7 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 14.5 20.7 25.4 184.4 80.4 75.0 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 10.2 15.0 18.8 211.2 83.9 76.5 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 12.2 27.5 20.0 237.4 88.0 77.8 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 14.8 26.3 19.5 235.8 86.3 78.3 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 15.9 20.9 20.6 220.2 86.1 77.3 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 11.4 15.9 20.5 212.1 84.7 77.3 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.6 8.4 18.6 169.9 78.0 73.6 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 10.3 15.2 20.4 227.5 86.2 78.8 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 6.7 8.0 17.1 171.9 77.8 71.7 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 16.2 21.7 23.3 196.7 83.7 76.0 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 8.2 19.6 18.9 240.9 87.8 78.3 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------