***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.1 11.7 0.4 58.2 55.4 10.8 11.8 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.8 11.5 0.1 54.7 52.6 10.1 10.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.1 12.0 0.2 56.5 53.7 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 9.2 0.7 61.0 58.4 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.5 10.4 0.3 55.7 55.3 10.9 11.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.0 10.2 1.1 68.4 64.3 10.4 12.1 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.6 11.3 0.1 52.1 51.6 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.3 10.0 0.6 61.2 59.3 3.8 5.0 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.9 11.2 0.4 56.7 55.7 11.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.5 10.6 0.5 59.9 57.9 10.7 11.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.3 13.5 10.9 0.5 56.9 57.2 11.0 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.3 10.6 0.6 62.5 59.9 11.0 12.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 13.9 13.5 10.9 0.8 66.2 62.0 10.9 12.8 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.8 12.1 11.2 0.0 48.2 51.3 11.2 12.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.7 10.5 0.7 62.2 59.5 9.2 11.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 10.7 0.7 62.1 60.3 11.6 13.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.0 11.0 -0.1 49.2 49.9 9.7 10.0 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 11.3 10.4 0.4 58.0 56.6 9.7 10.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.2 11.7 0.1 54.4 52.6 10.4 11.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.5 8.9 0.6 61.0 59.4 8.5 9.6 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.0 11.6 0.3 54.8 54.1 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.8 11.0 -0.2 45.7 48.6 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.2 11.9 0.0 51.9 51.7 10.2 11.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.4 11.3 0.2 53.5 53.8 11.2 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.6 10.4 0.3 56.9 54.9 10.0 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.4 12.8 10.1 0.7 62.5 61.8 11.0 12.0 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.4 11.2 0.3 58.0 55.1 10.9 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.6 9.9 0.8 62.0 60.0 9.7 10.8 12.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 9.1 9.9 0.4 56.8 56.6 7.6 8.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.2 11.6 0.2 56.1 53.3 10.3 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------