***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 11.8 10.1 10.0 1.4 64.3 61.1 6.3 8.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.3 9.8 1.1 60.6 59.4 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.9 10.4 1.2 63.3 60.0 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.1 7.4 1.3 60.6 60.1 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 8.7 1.4 60.8 60.1 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.5 8.4 1.7 63.5 61.4 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.1 9.8 1.2 61.3 60.1 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.5 4.3 8.5 1.5 64.3 61.1 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.0 9.5 1.4 62.8 60.3 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.2 9.1 1.6 64.2 61.0 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.4 9.0 1.5 63.6 61.2 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.9 8.8 1.5 63.3 61.5 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.4 12.4 8.7 1.7 65.1 62.5 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.0 9.7 1.1 60.3 58.0 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.0 7.9 1.2 59.6 60.0 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.8 8.8 1.7 64.3 61.7 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.3 9.5 1.0 59.7 58.5 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.9 9.2 1.5 65.3 60.0 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.6 10.2 10.0 1.1 60.0 59.0 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.4 7.5 1.5 66.1 60.9 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 9.8 1.3 61.7 60.1 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.7 9.4 0.9 57.5 57.5 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.2 10.3 1.0 59.3 58.3 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.2 9.8 1.3 63.7 59.3 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.5 8.6 1.3 62.1 60.4 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.9 11.0 8.4 1.6 65.7 62.7 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 12.0 10.7 9.6 1.4 64.3 61.2 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.7 7.8 1.3 59.9 60.1 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.8 8.6 1.5 64.3 60.0 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.5 9.9 1.2 61.6 60.1 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------