***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.3 10.6 0.8 55.3 57.0 9.2 10.9 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.2 10.4 0.7 55.5 56.7 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 10.8 0.6 53.8 55.5 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.1 7.9 0.5 52.0 53.5 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.0 9.1 0.6 51.9 54.5 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.3 9.1 1.3 58.7 59.8 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 10.4 0.7 55.9 57.4 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.9 9.0 0.9 55.2 57.6 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.6 9.8 0.7 53.9 55.2 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.6 9.5 0.9 55.2 57.2 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.9 9.5 0.8 53.1 56.2 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.0 9.5 0.9 54.6 57.4 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.6 9.5 1.3 58.9 60.7 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.6 10.1 0.7 54.5 55.8 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.9 8.5 0.3 49.9 52.0 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.1 9.4 1.0 56.8 58.3 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.9 10.1 0.6 55.6 56.7 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.3 9.7 1.2 57.8 58.9 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.5 10.6 0.6 55.0 56.1 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.0 8.3 1.4 59.1 61.0 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.8 10.2 0.6 53.7 54.6 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 10.1 0.5 54.3 55.6 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.2 10.8 0.6 55.0 55.2 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.1 10.3 0.9 55.4 56.6 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.3 9.1 0.6 54.7 55.4 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.2 9.3 1.2 59.1 61.4 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.8 10.2 0.9 56.6 57.8 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.7 8.3 0.5 52.2 53.6 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.7 9.3 1.2 57.4 59.5 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 10.5 0.7 55.4 56.8 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------