***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.9 12.4 11.7 -0.6 41.5 44.2 11.2 13.0 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 9.9 11.5 11.5 -0.9 39.4 43.1 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.6 12.3 12.0 -0.7 41.8 44.6 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.5 9.1 -0.2 43.4 46.4 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.9 10.4 -0.6 40.5 44.8 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.1 10.1 0.0 45.5 50.5 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.8 11.2 -1.0 37.8 42.1 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.9 9.7 -0.5 41.8 46.8 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.6 11.2 -0.7 41.2 44.7 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.8 10.3 -0.6 41.6 46.1 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.9 10.8 -0.7 40.8 45.0 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.0 10.3 -0.5 42.2 46.5 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.2 10.9 -0.4 42.6 47.6 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.0 -1.1 38.1 43.7 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 10.5 11.4 10.7 -0.1 43.3 46.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.9 10.6 -0.5 42.2 46.3 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 9.7 10.7 10.9 -1.1 36.1 41.8 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.5 9.9 -0.8 39.6 45.3 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 11.7 11.7 -0.8 40.5 43.7 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.3 8.5 -0.6 39.4 46.6 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.5 11.6 -0.7 41.2 44.5 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.3 11.0 -1.0 37.9 42.4 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.6 11.7 11.8 -0.9 40.5 43.8 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.9 11.2 -0.8 40.1 44.6 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.9 10.5 -0.6 40.6 44.0 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.0 10.0 -0.4 41.5 47.9 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.7 11.1 -0.7 40.7 43.5 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 10.5 11.4 10.0 -0.1 44.5 47.4 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.4 7.7 9.3 -0.9 38.1 44.9 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.6 11.4 11.6 -0.8 40.1 43.4 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------