***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.7 14.6 0.0 59.6 53.3 12.8 15.2 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.9 14.5 -0.4 53.7 49.1 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.0 14.9 -0.3 54.4 50.3 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.9 12.3 1.1 61.5 59.7 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.6 13.5 0.1 55.1 52.3 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.5 13.3 1.2 61.3 60.9 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.1 13.9 -0.7 50.6 46.5 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.8 12.9 0.4 55.2 54.5 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.3 14.4 0.0 56.0 51.9 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.7 13.4 0.2 55.1 52.9 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.5 14.3 0.2 56.5 53.7 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.8 13.6 0.6 58.2 56.1 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.2 14.6 0.6 60.6 57.6 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.3 15.5 13.8 -1.0 47.0 44.3 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.9 14.7 1.4 66.5 63.0 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.1 14.2 0.6 61.0 57.5 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.2 13.4 -0.9 45.6 43.6 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.2 13.2 12.6 -0.3 48.8 48.5 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.1 14.7 -0.4 53.1 49.1 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.4 11.5 0.1 49.9 51.1 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 14.7 -0.2 54.8 50.6 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.6 13.4 -1.2 41.7 40.9 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.9 14.6 -0.6 49.5 47.0 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.6 15.8 14.0 -0.6 48.5 46.9 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.4 15.1 13.6 0.0 58.4 52.3 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.5 12.9 0.4 57.2 55.3 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.1 14.0 -0.2 58.5 51.5 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 15.9 17.1 13.6 1.3 64.6 61.8 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.0 12.2 -0.3 47.5 48.1 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.9 14.6 -0.3 55.1 50.1 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------