***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.5 5.1 0.4 55.6 56.7 2.4 3.2 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.6 4.5 0.2 53.5 54.2 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.8 5.2 0.4 56.3 57.3 3.7 4.2 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -0.5 0.0 2.7 0.5 58.6 59.2 -1.3 -1.0 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.8 3.5 0.5 56.3 59.0 1.4 2.5 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.0 69.5 67.7 1.1 1.8 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.0 2.8 4.6 0.2 53.0 54.8 1.8 2.5 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -1.3 1.9 0.7 62.6 64.0 -2.8 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.2 3.6 0.5 56.7 59.0 2.1 2.9 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 3.5 3.0 2.4 0.6 61.0 62.4 1.7 2.5 3.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.5 56.9 60.1 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 2.4 2.2 2.5 0.7 61.2 63.2 0.4 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 2.8 2.9 2.4 0.9 65.2 64.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.6 3.4 0.5 58.1 59.5 2.5 3.1 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.1 3.8 0.6 58.7 60.0 2.0 2.8 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 3.8 3.7 2.6 0.7 61.5 62.7 2.4 3.0 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.6 4.2 0.0 50.7 52.4 1.7 2.5 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.8 65.3 63.8 0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.8 4.6 0.2 55.0 55.7 1.9 2.4 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.0 70.0 66.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.0 4.6 0.4 55.8 57.7 1.9 2.4 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.5 4.3 0.1 53.2 53.9 1.2 2.0 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.5 4.7 0.4 56.0 58.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 3.1 2.4 3.2 0.5 60.1 60.7 1.2 2.3 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.2 4.4 0.5 56.0 57.7 2.0 3.0 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.1 2.3 0.9 67.3 65.6 1.7 2.2 3.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.2 4.8 0.4 55.9 57.1 2.2 3.0 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.6 2.9 0.6 59.1 60.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.7 65.4 63.6 -0.5 0.7 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.3 4.8 0.3 54.9 55.6 2.1 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------