***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 2.1 3.3 4.2 1.4 66.4 61.3 -0.8 1.4 3.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 1.5 2.8 3.7 1.2 65.1 60.5 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.6 4.1 1.3 68.0 62.5 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -0.7 1.6 1.5 64.9 63.4 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 2.8 1.3 2.2 1.6 65.8 63.8 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 2.0 1.9 0.7 1.9 69.0 66.4 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 2.0 3.0 3.7 1.2 64.9 59.8 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.8 -1.7 1.0 1.9 71.1 67.4 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 3.6 3.5 2.7 1.6 69.4 64.5 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.8 71.2 66.5 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 68.7 65.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.9 70.0 66.8 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.1 1.1 1.9 69.0 66.1 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 3.1 3.7 2.5 1.5 67.8 64.5 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.4 66.2 63.5 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 2.5 2.9 1.4 1.8 69.6 65.3 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.9 2.6 3.5 1.1 63.1 59.2 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 71.3 67.6 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 1.7 3.1 3.7 1.2 65.7 61.2 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -1.7 -0.6 0.2 2.3 71.9 68.1 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 3.4 2.2 3.6 1.5 67.9 63.2 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.1 2.3 3.4 1.1 62.4 59.8 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 2.5 2.5 3.7 1.3 66.4 62.2 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.6 70.7 66.0 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.2 3.2 1.5 65.5 62.4 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.8 1.0 1.8 68.1 66.0 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 2.0 3.4 3.9 1.5 66.3 61.5 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 66.6 64.0 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 1.0 1.0 0.8 2.0 71.8 67.6 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.9 3.9 1.3 65.9 60.8 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------