***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.0 2.1 4.7 -1.0 35.7 41.6 2.1 3.7 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.2 1.9 4.1 -1.1 35.4 40.6 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.4 4.9 -0.9 36.7 42.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -0.9 2.2 -1.1 34.8 41.0 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 0.8 1.1 3.3 -0.9 37.2 43.9 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.6 1.6 -0.4 42.2 49.6 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.4 2.1 4.2 -1.1 36.0 41.3 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -2.8 1.4 -0.7 37.5 46.9 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.4 -0.8 38.2 44.6 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 1.7 2.5 2.0 -0.8 36.8 45.9 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 0.9 1.6 2.8 -0.8 36.8 45.2 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.3 0.8 2.3 -0.7 39.1 47.8 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.6 2.4 -0.4 41.3 50.7 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.6 2.9 3.0 -0.9 35.8 43.6 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.5 3.5 -0.9 35.1 41.1 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.0 2.5 -0.6 38.7 47.1 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.9 1.8 3.7 -1.3 33.3 39.9 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 0.3 0.9 1.5 -0.8 36.3 46.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.0 4.2 -1.1 36.2 41.3 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -1.8 0.5 -0.6 38.0 48.6 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 1.2 1.8 4.4 -0.8 37.7 43.6 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.2 1.8 3.9 -1.2 33.7 40.2 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.3 4.4 -0.9 36.9 42.8 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.0 3.0 -0.8 36.2 45.1 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.8 4.0 -1.0 35.3 41.9 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.0 2.2 -0.4 42.0 50.1 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.7 4.5 -1.0 36.8 42.3 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 -0.4 0.4 2.5 -0.9 35.1 42.5 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.7 0.3 0.9 -0.8 36.5 46.3 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.4 4.5 -1.0 36.5 41.3 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------