***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 34.6 74.2 35.8 36.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.2 35.7 35.1 77.7 40.0 39.4 33.8 39.3 47.8 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 29.1 37.7 34.8 74.6 36.0 35.9 35.0 48.9 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 33.2 46.6 39.8 77.8 42.4 37.0 40.0 52.3 64.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 31.3 37.0 37.3 74.3 39.5 35.1 30.9 48.4 56.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 28.6 34.6 40.1 77.3 39.5 36.6 32.3 37.2 54.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 27.4 34.1 34.7 77.5 39.5 39.0 29.4 39.8 44.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 43.6 55.3 40.9 77.3 37.4 35.8 48.3 73.3 94.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 27.9 32.2 37.4 74.1 37.5 34.6 28.5 42.1 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 31.2 34.7 40.9 77.1 37.6 35.5 31.6 46.4 57.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 27.6 32.7 35.8 76.1 36.6 36.5 30.3 43.3 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 29.0 29.4 35.7 76.4 37.0 35.9 29.0 41.4 62.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 31.6 38.3 37.7 75.9 34.6 35.4 37.2 46.7 67.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 46.6 54.9 44.6 80.4 38.0 37.4 51.5 66.3 75.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 25.7 40.0 43.2 83.5 45.6 41.7 29.8 42.8 59.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 30.9 34.8 36.2 76.4 36.0 36.4 33.8 42.3 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 48.1 37.3 35.7 80.6 42.4 41.6 32.0 42.0 46.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 35.1 48.0 46.4 79.0 38.6 35.8 37.5 56.3 68.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 31.3 38.7 35.6 77.6 39.7 39.0 35.8 45.0 59.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 45.5 50.3 55.1 76.0 38.6 35.2 45.9 59.7 76.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.4 42.8 35.7 74.4 38.3 35.0 38.2 45.0 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 53.7 43.9 37.2 80.2 42.7 41.3 32.9 50.8 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 35.0 40.2 37.2 78.3 37.5 38.3 37.3 50.3 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 32.3 41.5 41.7 78.5 37.7 36.0 36.1 56.5 70.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 25.8 30.1 38.4 75.1 36.3 35.9 26.3 40.4 52.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 33.1 37.4 38.4 76.0 40.7 34.6 35.4 41.0 57.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 29.0 34.7 37.0 74.7 35.1 36.6 34.0 41.4 46.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 26.1 36.3 40.4 80.4 44.5 39.3 28.5 42.1 56.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 58.5 73.7 50.8 78.9 39.1 36.3 63.3 80.9 96.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 26.4 33.1 34.5 75.7 38.1 38.0 31.3 37.0 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------