***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.4 88.2 52.3 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.5 9.3 97.2 53.1 49.6 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.5 9.5 91.2 53.2 47.7 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.8 13.9 10.7 89.8 54.9 46.8 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.4 12.6 9.8 84.9 51.8 45.9 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.7 14.7 10.2 88.2 56.7 48.4 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.4 9.2 96.4 53.9 49.4 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 27.2 23.6 10.7 87.9 54.2 47.5 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.6 9.9 84.8 53.1 46.0 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.0 10.7 87.9 53.4 47.2 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.5 9.1 85.6 55.2 46.6 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.4 9.1 86.3 55.8 47.8 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.3 9.5 86.3 55.9 48.5 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.9 11.0 88.9 55.6 47.5 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.4 11.7 94.6 59.8 47.5 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.2 9.2 86.4 56.2 47.2 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.2 9.1 101.4 56.9 49.7 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.1 12.2 89.1 55.0 47.8 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.8 9.4 97.0 54.6 49.4 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.8 12.1 14.9 86.0 53.4 47.1 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.2 10.9 9.5 85.2 51.7 45.8 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.8 9.4 101.4 58.5 49.8 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.7 94.9 55.6 48.8 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.5 10.9 89.9 54.9 47.7 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 10.8 91.4 52.3 47.7 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.1 14.6 9.7 84.3 53.8 46.9 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.2 10.3 90.4 52.8 47.8 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.1 10.9 91.7 58.3 47.2 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.1 22.9 13.3 87.9 54.9 47.8 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.1 9.4 94.6 52.9 49.1 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------