***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 79.6 53.1 39.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.7 10.1 74.2 49.7 40.8 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.4 10.1 79.0 53.4 40.0 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 12.8 12.2 93.3 55.6 43.6 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.3 14.9 11.8 93.5 57.2 43.3 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.4 14.7 114.1 62.5 50.7 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.4 9.2 10.0 74.2 49.4 40.1 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.8 22.0 13.6 101.2 58.9 47.1 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.6 13.5 11.7 91.7 58.7 42.9 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.5 14.3 13.0 96.3 58.9 45.0 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.2 16.7 12.0 102.7 59.2 46.4 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.2 24.5 12.6 109.3 61.8 48.8 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.8 13.8 114.1 62.9 49.5 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 17.1 13.3 87.1 53.5 44.5 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 18.2 13.0 99.1 62.0 46.2 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 19.1 12.9 111.4 61.9 49.0 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.6 10.2 76.2 50.8 42.7 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 15.5 14.4 94.8 58.2 45.1 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.2 10.3 75.3 50.3 41.2 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.0 21.3 17.7 90.0 54.9 45.0 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.2 13.5 10.9 86.5 56.2 40.9 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.3 10.9 77.7 52.1 44.2 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.2 10.1 10.8 78.6 51.0 42.0 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.6 12.5 89.4 56.4 43.8 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.4 9.2 11.4 83.0 53.4 40.9 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.5 17.4 13.7 109.6 61.1 48.5 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.4 10.9 79.6 53.6 40.2 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.6 18.6 13.0 102.7 61.7 47.1 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 19.7 15.9 93.1 54.7 45.3 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.8 10.0 74.2 51.4 39.8 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------