***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 67.1 50.4 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.8 9.2 72.8 52.7 41.6 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.7 9.0 66.5 48.8 39.0 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 6.6 9.3 60.6 52.1 37.1 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.0 59.5 47.8 37.4 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.4 5.1 9.9 62.8 46.4 39.8 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.1 9.1 73.1 53.7 41.0 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 8.6 10.2 66.0 48.0 39.8 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.5 9.2 60.6 46.4 37.4 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 8.2 10.1 64.5 47.0 38.9 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.8 8.4 59.0 48.4 38.3 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.7 8.6 61.5 48.3 39.0 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.9 9.2 9.0 58.7 47.6 38.5 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 12.3 12.1 75.1 49.8 42.9 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.5 10.3 65.7 51.1 40.4 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.1 8.4 57.8 48.7 38.1 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.2 9.7 77.6 56.5 43.9 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 9.6 12.0 70.7 46.4 40.6 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.8 9.4 73.4 52.0 41.5 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.0 14.4 73.8 45.7 41.2 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.2 8.9 62.4 48.5 38.2 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 12.5 10.1 78.1 55.7 43.4 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.9 10.0 73.7 51.0 41.2 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.5 10.9 70.1 49.0 41.0 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.5 9.5 64.3 46.7 37.5 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.2 9.6 66.2 49.5 40.1 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.3 9.5 68.5 47.4 38.5 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.2 3.5 9.3 61.6 51.6 38.9 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 18.3 13.4 73.5 46.7 41.4 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.0 70.4 49.6 40.4 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------