***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 61.7 46.7 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 0.9 2.7 6.5 69.3 50.3 40.5 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.1 1.8 6.2 62.6 46.5 36.8 0.3 3.2 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.7 7.6 70.0 51.2 42.2 1.9 4.3 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.3 3.4 6.7 61.3 47.3 35.8 0.4 4.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 0.8 2.2 5.3 45.3 45.5 33.8 0.3 2.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.4 4.0 6.5 69.1 51.2 41.0 0.6 3.9 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 1.8 2.4 6.3 54.1 43.2 33.4 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 0.6 1.9 6.6 60.7 48.0 34.4 0.1 2.2 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 1.6 4.1 7.0 60.4 46.4 35.3 0.7 5.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 0.9 2.0 6.3 60.0 48.0 36.2 0.3 2.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 1.0 1.8 5.4 51.0 43.1 32.7 0.5 3.3 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 1.0 1.9 5.4 48.1 43.8 31.8 0.4 3.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.1 8.1 69.8 47.4 40.7 1.1 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.9 8.2 77.4 55.7 46.1 0.2 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 0.6 0.7 5.8 54.1 45.6 34.3 0.3 1.9 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.0 3.2 6.7 71.2 54.0 41.3 0.5 2.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.6 7.7 60.4 41.4 36.0 1.7 4.2 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.9 6.5 67.0 49.1 39.2 0.7 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 1.3 2.1 8.0 50.9 38.8 33.6 0.9 3.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.4 4.1 6.4 64.2 48.9 36.2 0.4 4.2 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.3 6.7 66.8 50.6 38.7 0.7 3.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 1.1 3.1 6.7 67.2 48.9 39.6 1.2 3.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.2 3.4 7.4 64.6 44.8 37.7 1.1 6.3 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.1 2.6 6.7 61.9 46.8 35.4 1.1 3.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 0.8 0.7 5.3 44.6 40.8 30.1 0.4 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 1.3 2.7 6.3 59.7 45.2 36.2 0.2 4.4 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.9 7.2 68.4 51.7 42.2 0.2 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.9 2.8 8.2 59.0 40.7 36.3 2.5 8.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.0 2.0 6.3 65.3 47.4 39.5 1.0 2.9 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------