***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 1.5 79.8 73.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 12.5 13.1 12.4 1.6 79.2 74.4 10.1 10.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 13.7 14.5 12.8 1.6 79.7 73.6 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.8 10.5 1.3 77.5 70.6 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.3 13.7 11.3 1.5 76.3 71.5 10.9 11.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.0 13.2 10.5 1.7 79.3 73.2 10.4 12.1 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 12.2 12.7 12.3 1.6 78.7 74.7 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 5.8 5.9 10.7 1.7 76.4 72.9 3.8 5.0 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.7 12.1 1.6 77.2 72.3 11.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 13.4 13.9 11.3 1.6 76.0 72.1 10.7 11.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 13.6 14.1 11.3 1.5 76.8 71.6 11.0 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.9 14.3 11.2 1.7 78.1 73.0 11.0 12.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.4 11.1 1.8 79.4 73.8 10.9 12.8 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 14.6 14.9 12.3 1.7 76.2 72.0 11.2 12.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.8 10.8 1.3 78.8 70.4 9.2 11.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.5 11.1 1.6 78.2 72.4 11.6 13.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 12.0 12.4 12.1 1.5 79.1 74.4 9.7 10.0 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.1 11.1 1.7 75.6 72.0 9.7 10.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 12.8 13.3 12.6 1.6 79.1 74.2 10.4 11.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 10.7 11.0 9.5 1.8 77.1 73.8 8.5 9.6 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 13.6 14.0 12.4 1.5 77.1 72.7 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 12.9 13.3 12.3 1.5 76.7 73.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 13.1 13.6 12.8 1.7 78.7 73.9 10.2 11.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 14.2 14.8 12.2 1.7 77.0 72.3 11.2 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 12.4 12.9 11.2 1.5 79.5 73.0 10.0 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 13.7 14.1 10.9 1.9 81.0 76.1 11.0 12.0 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 13.3 13.7 11.9 1.5 79.6 73.6 10.9 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 12.6 13.3 10.8 1.3 76.4 69.9 9.7 10.8 12.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.8 10.6 1.9 76.9 73.0 7.6 8.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 12.5 13.4 12.6 1.6 79.4 74.4 10.3 10.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------