***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 0.6 56.9 55.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.1 8.7 0.7 59.0 56.3 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.9 10.6 9.1 0.7 58.9 56.1 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.7 6.8 0.3 53.2 52.7 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.5 7.5 0.4 53.5 53.3 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.5 6.5 0.2 52.4 51.8 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.0 8.6 0.7 59.2 56.3 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.6 3.3 7.0 0.4 52.8 54.1 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.7 8.3 0.5 55.4 54.5 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.5 9.4 7.6 0.5 54.5 54.3 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.5 9.8 7.5 0.4 53.9 53.3 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.7 9.6 7.4 0.4 52.2 53.8 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.1 9.3 7.0 0.3 51.2 52.6 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.6 8.7 0.8 56.4 56.5 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.7 7.0 0.2 51.8 52.9 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 7.2 0.3 53.5 52.6 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.1 8.4 0.6 58.3 55.9 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.8 7.5 0.6 55.3 55.2 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.9 9.0 0.7 59.0 56.5 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.5 5.7 0.5 53.2 54.9 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.1 8.7 0.5 56.1 55.0 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.0 10.1 8.7 0.6 59.8 55.9 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.1 9.2 0.8 58.9 56.8 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.8 8.6 0.7 57.1 56.1 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 7.4 0.4 54.7 53.7 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.1 8.9 6.9 0.2 49.9 53.0 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 8.2 0.5 54.8 54.5 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 7.1 0.2 52.6 52.7 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.8 6.8 0.6 54.6 55.5 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.3 8.9 0.7 59.4 56.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------