***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 0.4 57.2 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.9 10.5 0.5 60.8 56.8 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.2 10.9 0.5 58.5 56.5 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.2 8.7 0.1 53.5 53.6 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.0 9.3 0.2 54.3 54.2 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.9 8.3 0.3 54.1 53.7 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.1 10.4 0.5 61.9 56.4 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.8 8.5 0.3 54.3 54.2 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 10.0 0.4 55.0 55.2 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.6 9.2 0.3 54.3 54.8 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.0 9.2 0.3 53.8 54.1 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 9.0 0.2 53.1 53.9 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.2 8.7 0.3 53.6 54.3 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.1 12.8 10.4 0.6 57.4 56.9 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.0 8.9 0.2 52.8 53.5 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.5 8.9 0.2 53.5 53.7 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.0 10.3 0.5 59.6 56.8 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.0 9.0 0.4 54.8 55.5 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.8 10.8 0.6 59.8 57.1 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 9.2 7.2 0.4 55.1 55.0 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 10.4 0.4 54.8 55.4 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.2 10.5 0.5 59.0 56.9 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.4 11.4 11.0 0.6 58.7 57.4 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.1 10.2 0.5 55.8 56.4 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.3 9.3 0.3 54.3 55.3 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.7 8.7 0.5 53.7 55.8 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 10.0 0.4 56.7 55.9 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.7 8.9 0.1 52.8 53.0 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 8.6 8.3 0.5 55.8 55.8 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.3 10.7 0.5 61.6 56.6 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------