***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 1.7 66.3 66.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.3 13.7 13.6 1.9 72.0 67.5 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.3 13.9 1.9 68.2 66.7 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 7.8 6.2 11.5 1.4 59.4 62.4 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 14.4 13.7 12.3 1.7 62.0 64.9 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.2 11.4 1.8 59.8 64.6 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.7 13.4 1.8 72.3 67.6 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 6.9 6.6 11.9 2.1 64.0 67.4 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 15.2 14.5 13.1 1.9 65.3 65.7 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 14.0 13.6 12.5 2.0 64.2 66.4 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 15.1 14.0 12.4 1.9 62.5 66.3 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.8 14.3 12.4 2.1 64.1 67.4 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.1 14.2 12.0 2.0 62.2 67.1 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.8 13.7 2.2 71.2 67.9 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.3 11.4 1.2 58.0 60.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 15.5 14.7 12.1 1.8 61.7 65.8 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.0 13.3 1.9 73.7 68.2 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.4 12.9 12.4 2.1 64.6 67.0 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.0 13.8 1.9 71.9 67.6 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 12.2 11.5 10.6 2.2 67.3 68.1 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.6 13.4 1.8 65.5 65.4 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 13.6 14.1 13.6 2.0 73.3 68.5 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.3 14.1 2.1 71.6 67.8 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.3 13.5 2.1 67.8 67.0 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 13.8 13.3 12.1 1.6 65.8 64.9 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.5 11.9 2.1 67.1 68.7 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.4 12.9 1.7 66.6 66.1 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.3 11.7 1.3 57.6 61.6 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.5 11.7 2.2 66.8 67.7 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.4 13.7 1.8 70.1 67.2 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------