***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 9999.0 0.0 17.1 3.4 86.2 82.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 16.0 17.8 16.8 3.2 85.0 81.4 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 18.8 19.4 17.2 3.3 85.1 80.8 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 13.0 14.1 14.9 3.5 83.9 82.6 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 18.8 19.7 16.1 3.6 85.2 82.4 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 18.2 20.1 15.7 4.7 88.9 87.5 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 15.9 18.2 16.7 3.3 86.4 82.1 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 9.9 11.4 15.4 4.0 87.8 84.3 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 19.0 20.0 16.9 3.5 85.6 81.8 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 18.7 20.0 16.0 3.7 86.2 81.8 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 19.1 20.2 16.1 3.6 84.9 81.9 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 18.7 20.8 15.9 4.0 87.8 85.2 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 19.1 21.2 16.5 4.5 89.3 87.6 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.8 20.6 16.6 3.1 82.3 77.1 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 16.5 17.4 15.9 3.4 84.8 83.0 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 20.0 20.6 16.2 4.1 86.8 85.3 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 15.1 17.2 16.4 3.2 86.3 81.2 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 17.0 19.5 15.7 3.8 86.8 81.4 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 16.9 18.1 17.0 3.2 85.1 80.9 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 15.5 17.4 14.5 4.4 90.8 86.6 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 18.2 18.9 17.2 3.4 84.5 81.6 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 16.2 18.5 16.4 3.0 86.3 79.6 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 17.1 18.5 17.0 3.2 85.2 80.0 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 18.8 20.6 16.6 3.4 84.6 79.2 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 16.3 19.0 16.2 3.6 87.7 84.0 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 18.2 20.6 16.0 4.8 91.1 90.8 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 18.2 19.0 16.7 3.5 86.8 83.7 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 17.8 18.4 15.6 3.5 83.1 81.8 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 14.7 17.4 15.4 4.1 88.7 84.0 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 16.1 17.7 17.0 3.3 85.0 81.7 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------