***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 1.4 79.0 73.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 4.2 4.7 5.7 1.6 80.1 76.2 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 5.9 6.3 5.6 1.5 79.2 74.8 3.7 4.2 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 1.1 1.6 3.5 1.4 77.4 74.8 -1.3 -1.0 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 3.3 3.4 3.8 1.3 76.5 72.6 1.4 2.5 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 2.5 2.7 1.9 1.2 75.7 72.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 4.4 4.9 5.6 1.6 79.6 75.6 1.8 2.5 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -1.0 -0.7 2.6 1.2 76.8 71.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 4.4 4.6 4.3 1.2 75.3 71.6 2.1 2.9 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 3.8 4.0 3.2 1.3 76.5 71.6 1.7 2.5 3.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 3.3 3.5 3.4 1.2 75.0 70.9 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 2.6 2.7 3.0 1.1 74.6 70.1 0.4 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.0 73.8 69.0 1.3 2.1 2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 4.6 5.0 4.5 1.6 79.7 75.1 2.5 3.1 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 3.9 4.2 4.0 1.4 78.2 75.1 2.0 2.8 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 4.0 4.4 2.9 1.2 74.9 70.8 2.4 3.0 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 4.1 4.6 5.6 1.7 80.5 76.9 1.7 2.5 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 1.8 2.0 2.7 1.3 76.8 71.4 0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 4.2 4.8 5.6 1.6 80.8 76.6 1.9 2.4 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 -0.3 0.2 1.3 1.2 76.6 69.4 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 4.2 4.6 5.2 1.3 76.4 72.7 1.9 2.4 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 3.6 4.1 5.6 1.7 83.0 77.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 4.1 4.6 5.4 1.6 81.6 77.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 3.4 3.7 4.2 1.5 78.2 74.2 1.2 2.3 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.2 4.5 1.4 78.6 73.3 2.0 3.0 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 3.2 3.6 2.9 1.3 78.5 72.7 1.7 2.2 3.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 4.3 4.8 5.1 1.4 78.5 72.7 2.2 3.0 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 2.2 2.4 3.7 1.4 77.3 74.9 0.8 1.4 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.3 76.7 70.7 -0.5 0.7 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 4.5 5.0 5.7 1.5 79.9 75.4 2.1 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------