***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 3.0 0.4 56.5 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 1.5 2.5 2.6 0.5 58.6 55.1 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.4 2.8 0.5 57.7 54.9 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -1.7 0.5 0.2 56.0 53.4 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 55.8 52.0 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 0.7 0.3 -0.8 0.1 51.2 51.0 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 2.0 2.3 2.5 0.5 57.1 54.4 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -4.1 -0.2 0.1 50.2 50.3 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.3 55.0 52.8 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 51.8 51.5 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 54.6 50.7 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -1.2 0.2 0.0 49.3 49.3 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 48.9 49.3 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.6 57.3 55.7 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 58.5 55.1 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.2 0.0 0.1 52.8 50.5 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 1.8 2.3 2.5 0.5 60.5 55.6 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.1 0.0 0.4 51.7 52.6 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.7 2.7 0.6 58.2 55.7 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.3 -4.2 -1.2 0.3 51.2 52.3 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 1.4 0.9 2.4 0.4 55.7 53.6 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.8 2.5 0.6 60.2 56.5 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.6 2.6 0.7 58.8 56.4 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.5 54.7 54.3 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.3 54.9 53.6 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 50.2 49.6 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.4 2.2 0.3 55.9 53.2 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 56.7 54.2 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.2 -0.4 0.4 52.4 52.8 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.6 2.7 0.5 57.2 54.6 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------