***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 9.4 3.5 82.9 83.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 6.7 7.5 9.6 4.0 87.2 85.9 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 8.6 8.9 9.2 3.4 83.8 83.5 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.8 6.4 7.5 4.0 89.4 87.3 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 5.4 5.5 7.6 3.5 81.9 82.2 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 4.5 5.9 5.2 3.2 82.2 81.7 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 6.0 7.3 9.6 4.1 87.9 86.0 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 1.1 1.7 5.9 3.3 80.1 81.0 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 6.4 6.8 7.6 3.0 79.9 79.6 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 6.4 6.6 6.7 3.4 80.7 81.0 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 5.9 6.1 6.8 3.1 79.8 79.8 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 5.7 6.2 6.2 3.1 79.4 79.7 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 5.8 6.3 5.9 2.9 78.7 77.8 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 6.8 7.8 8.0 3.5 84.1 83.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 7.1 7.9 8.1 3.6 88.6 86.2 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 6.4 6.7 6.3 3.2 79.9 79.9 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 6.1 7.6 9.7 4.3 88.8 87.6 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 5.0 5.6 5.9 3.2 80.2 80.2 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 6.7 7.6 9.4 3.8 87.1 85.5 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 1.5 1.6 4.1 3.0 77.4 78.3 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 6.1 7.1 8.8 3.3 81.7 81.7 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 6.0 7.2 9.6 4.2 89.0 87.3 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 6.5 7.9 9.0 3.6 86.9 85.0 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 6.1 6.6 7.6 3.4 82.5 82.3 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 6.3 7.7 8.6 3.7 83.7 83.8 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 5.7 6.8 6.6 3.8 85.7 84.0 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 6.9 7.8 8.9 3.6 82.8 82.9 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 5.0 6.5 7.6 3.7 88.4 85.9 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 5.2 5.5 5.0 3.0 79.0 79.1 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 7.0 7.8 9.5 3.8 86.2 84.9 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------