***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 43.5 41.7 36.3 93.8 55.4 45.5 30.8 39.2 48.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.3 35.3 31.7 80.0 42.4 40.1 30.3 38.1 46.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 34.6 51.5 38.2 97.9 54.2 46.5 36.4 45.9 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 35.6 48.0 40.3 87.6 43.1 41.4 40.8 52.7 60.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 33.6 49.8 43.5 100.5 55.3 46.5 32.9 46.6 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 29.3 39.8 44.8 100.7 53.7 48.8 32.2 37.8 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.6 33.5 30.6 78.6 41.9 39.4 26.7 38.3 44.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 47.9 73.8 45.9 102.9 57.3 48.4 47.8 66.3 94.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 31.0 51.3 44.7 105.5 61.5 48.6 30.5 43.6 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 34.3 55.7 47.7 106.6 62.1 49.2 31.9 44.5 56.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 31.7 45.6 41.0 101.1 55.5 47.0 30.9 43.0 51.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 34.5 48.9 40.5 103.2 56.2 48.7 29.0 45.1 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 35.0 48.7 42.1 101.7 53.6 48.9 37.3 47.9 65.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 49.0 72.5 48.0 101.4 57.6 48.6 52.7 68.3 76.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 23.5 33.7 41.6 83.9 43.6 39.7 31.7 40.0 58.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 33.9 44.7 40.0 98.3 52.4 46.5 36.9 44.5 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 27.5 31.0 29.2 71.3 37.0 35.8 27.4 41.3 46.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 41.4 60.2 52.6 108.1 61.4 50.3 39.1 54.2 65.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 47.4 39.2 34.0 85.2 46.4 42.1 33.1 41.3 60.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 43.2 56.1 56.4 92.7 49.8 44.5 47.8 56.3 77.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 32.4 49.7 41.4 104.8 59.9 48.6 38.0 45.0 52.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 34.3 40.8 32.3 73.8 41.7 37.2 32.1 49.8 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 37.2 51.9 38.3 93.8 51.5 45.5 37.1 51.5 55.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 38.0 65.1 48.1 107.9 61.1 50.2 41.9 56.5 69.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 28.7 42.2 42.1 95.7 52.5 45.5 25.5 40.5 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 53.2 45.8 41.6 101.6 52.9 49.8 33.6 44.5 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 30.4 41.4 39.0 92.4 53.3 44.9 31.7 39.8 45.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 26.3 34.9 39.8 86.3 43.0 40.6 29.0 40.3 52.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 62.7 83.8 55.0 104.0 57.7 49.2 61.9 80.2 92.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 41.3 33.5 33.3 85.4 46.1 42.4 30.0 35.8 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------