***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.8 10.0 105.3 65.6 50.3 4.6 10.6 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.5 8.8 90.6 61.6 47.8 4.5 8.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.0 9.2 96.6 60.4 48.7 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.7 18.5 10.5 94.9 61.4 47.7 5.3 13.4 22.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.6 20.5 10.9 109.1 67.9 50.6 5.3 12.4 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.9 27.4 12.2 118.6 66.2 54.0 5.4 14.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.9 9.1 95.2 62.0 48.8 3.1 8.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.7 29.0 11.7 116.2 66.0 52.5 7.1 14.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.7 20.1 11.3 112.9 71.9 51.5 2.1 10.4 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.5 23.8 11.8 115.9 69.5 52.4 5.2 10.6 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.5 21.4 10.4 112.7 66.5 51.3 4.4 12.8 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.8 10.4 114.2 63.8 52.8 3.5 13.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.2 23.7 11.2 115.7 62.0 53.3 6.5 16.9 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.4 25.2 10.4 94.6 60.7 48.2 7.8 17.0 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.6 9.7 77.5 55.0 44.6 2.6 8.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.0 21.2 10.3 110.6 62.8 51.6 7.9 13.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.9 12.2 9.1 92.2 60.5 46.6 5.7 8.8 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 19.6 12.3 113.3 67.1 52.4 6.4 12.9 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.3 14.3 8.6 89.0 60.2 47.3 6.9 10.5 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 21.5 14.7 111.7 64.9 51.8 6.4 12.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.5 15.2 10.4 109.5 65.6 51.2 5.5 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.2 14.4 9.1 87.8 59.2 46.0 6.8 11.7 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.7 8.7 89.3 57.7 47.4 5.3 9.7 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.5 21.8 10.7 103.6 63.1 50.3 2.6 14.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.7 11.1 100.9 60.8 49.3 3.5 10.0 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.6 24.3 11.0 112.3 62.0 52.8 5.9 14.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.9 16.1 10.7 102.3 62.7 49.7 2.6 8.1 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.3 16.4 10.1 91.1 59.7 47.2 2.6 10.4 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.9 33.1 13.2 113.2 66.4 52.2 8.6 17.0 33.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.0 8.8 92.0 60.6 48.4 4.6 7.9 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------