***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.8 10.6 113.2 69.6 57.2 2.2 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.3 9.8 99.5 62.2 53.0 3.2 8.6 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.5 18.5 11.3 119.6 68.1 57.1 3.9 8.2 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.8 12.1 108.2 64.6 52.2 4.5 11.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.7 19.9 12.6 122.0 69.0 56.1 4.5 13.2 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.5 12.4 113.7 67.0 53.9 4.8 9.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.8 9.4 94.7 62.2 53.1 4.6 8.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.4 24.0 14.3 131.4 70.2 57.4 9.2 15.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.3 18.0 13.4 129.5 70.2 57.7 2.8 11.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.7 18.4 14.4 131.2 69.2 57.9 4.0 11.9 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.5 17.9 12.2 127.6 70.6 56.6 4.3 13.1 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.2 21.5 12.3 132.2 73.4 57.6 4.1 11.4 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.2 12.4 126.9 70.7 57.4 6.2 8.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.6 14.7 124.1 65.7 55.6 5.0 13.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 12.9 12.5 100.7 64.6 48.7 1.4 8.1 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.7 11.8 122.1 70.8 55.3 4.0 10.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 9.3 88.0 55.0 49.4 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.4 16.0 16.0 128.8 65.8 57.6 4.2 8.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.6 10.4 106.2 64.0 54.0 3.0 9.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 22.6 18.6 118.8 66.2 55.3 4.6 15.0 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.8 18.3 12.3 128.7 68.3 58.6 2.9 10.0 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.1 10.6 93.7 54.5 50.4 2.4 9.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 15.0 11.5 115.4 66.4 54.9 4.2 8.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.7 15.3 14.3 126.7 62.8 57.1 4.1 11.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.7 15.3 12.2 116.4 66.3 55.9 2.5 8.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.7 19.0 12.0 121.4 67.7 56.7 6.6 12.1 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.8 12.8 11.3 111.7 67.5 55.9 3.4 7.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.6 13.4 12.1 106.2 65.3 50.4 2.7 7.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 21.5 16.9 123.3 65.3 56.2 11.0 14.9 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.7 10.1 105.2 66.1 55.0 3.1 10.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------