***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.6 11.5 108.1 62.8 52.1 5.9 8.7 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.5 9.4 84.7 55.5 47.6 2.2 9.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.0 12.8 122.6 68.5 55.0 3.7 9.6 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.5 12.8 104.2 64.6 48.3 1.7 6.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.9 14.0 119.9 66.9 55.0 1.4 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 13.8 15.0 115.7 66.3 55.1 1.0 5.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.9 9.1 84.4 56.2 46.3 1.2 7.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 25.0 14.4 116.2 65.9 55.0 3.4 9.2 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 15.0 14.8 128.7 69.2 56.4 1.4 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 18.6 15.6 125.6 68.2 56.8 2.2 9.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.5 12.4 13.0 116.4 65.3 54.7 1.6 7.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.1 14.9 12.7 118.9 67.3 55.2 3.4 7.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.4 16.4 13.5 114.1 64.6 54.1 2.3 4.5 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.9 16.8 121.2 64.7 56.5 7.6 14.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.8 9.7 12.6 96.1 62.8 46.7 1.0 2.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.2 14.1 12.8 111.4 62.7 52.8 0.9 7.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.5 9.3 8.0 71.7 49.8 40.0 1.9 9.4 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 21.1 17.8 130.3 70.8 58.4 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.6 10.5 94.0 59.2 50.1 2.4 9.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 13.8 17.5 99.2 59.4 51.4 4.5 8.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.3 13.1 13.7 130.7 71.4 56.1 1.4 6.2 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.8 12.5 9.0 74.7 52.3 42.1 1.6 12.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.5 12.4 108.2 63.4 53.4 4.5 9.3 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.1 16.8 136.1 70.0 58.9 3.6 8.8 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.8 10.4 13.7 117.2 67.0 52.8 1.2 5.8 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.1 12.9 115.2 65.7 55.1 1.5 5.8 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 12.5 108.2 63.5 51.5 2.3 8.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.4 12.7 99.9 62.9 47.5 0.9 2.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 24.8 18.6 123.4 68.1 57.0 7.1 19.3 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.8 10.3 95.0 59.1 50.3 2.0 7.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------