***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 1.8 3.7 4.2 45.9 42.7 31.2 0.6 5.3 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.0 1.2 3.7 41.4 41.8 31.5 0.7 2.5 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.8 4.8 50.5 45.7 34.5 1.3 5.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.1 4.9 42.9 47.1 30.9 1.9 6.4 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.6 5.9 52.8 50.4 37.5 2.1 4.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.1 2.9 5.2 50.6 52.4 38.9 1.1 2.7 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 1.1 1.2 3.0 34.5 39.2 27.4 0.5 3.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.8 5.6 49.4 48.7 36.1 1.6 6.3 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.0 5.3 49.9 48.3 34.3 1.4 5.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.1 5.9 52.7 49.5 36.0 3.7 6.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.6 5.4 51.2 50.7 36.3 1.3 5.2 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.0 5.1 50.2 51.8 37.2 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.0 5.1 50.1 48.4 36.8 1.6 4.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.4 6.2 57.8 49.3 39.2 3.1 9.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 3.4 2.6 6.7 58.5 53.9 44.1 0.7 2.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.4 3.3 5.1 49.8 50.1 35.0 0.6 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 0.8 1.2 2.9 30.3 38.2 24.7 0.6 2.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.4 6.4 55.4 49.3 35.7 1.9 6.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 2.5 4.5 48.2 43.7 35.4 1.2 3.6 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.7 5.6 39.7 40.2 30.1 3.1 4.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.0 5.0 50.2 49.6 35.0 0.9 6.3 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.9 3.6 35.9 38.0 27.3 1.8 2.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 3.6 5.6 58.6 48.2 40.2 1.9 3.8 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.6 6.3 59.7 51.0 38.0 2.2 7.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.7 4.3 5.1 47.1 48.2 32.5 1.6 4.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.4 5.7 56.5 54.7 40.5 1.1 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 1.0 1.8 4.5 44.8 42.2 29.7 0.8 3.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.6 3.9 4.9 45.1 48.5 33.3 1.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 9.7 6.3 50.7 48.5 34.5 3.5 10.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.3 4.1 45.7 43.1 33.2 0.6 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------