***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 10.4 9.9 9.9 -1.9 20.6 26.3 10.8 11.9 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.8 9.8 9.9 -1.7 22.2 27.6 10.2 10.8 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 10.4 10.5 10.0 -1.9 20.0 26.7 11.1 11.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.7 4.3 7.8 -1.9 19.3 27.2 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 10.6 10.3 8.3 -2.0 18.8 26.5 11.2 11.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 10.2 9.7 7.1 -2.4 19.9 23.9 10.6 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 9.6 9.5 9.8 -1.7 20.6 27.5 10.1 10.7 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 3.2 7.5 -2.1 20.9 26.4 4.1 5.2 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 11.0 10.9 9.1 -2.0 19.9 26.8 11.6 12.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 10.3 10.3 8.2 -2.1 20.0 26.5 10.8 11.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 10.7 10.5 8.1 -2.2 20.1 25.7 11.1 12.0 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 10.5 10.2 7.8 -2.3 20.1 24.7 10.9 12.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 10.8 10.4 7.5 -2.5 19.2 22.7 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.0 11.0 9.4 -1.8 23.3 28.7 11.2 12.1 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 9.6 9.4 8.3 -1.7 21.2 28.0 9.6 11.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 11.4 10.8 7.8 -2.3 19.7 24.5 12.0 13.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.4 9.8 -1.5 25.2 29.3 9.9 10.1 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.2 8.0 -2.2 19.5 27.3 9.9 10.7 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.3 10.0 -1.7 22.5 27.9 10.5 11.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.7 6.8 6.3 -2.1 18.8 27.6 8.7 10.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 10.7 10.4 9.6 -1.9 18.6 26.6 11.1 11.8 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.0 9.9 -1.4 27.0 30.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.1 10.1 -1.7 22.1 28.4 10.8 11.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.1 9.2 -2.0 20.8 27.6 11.3 12.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 10.1 9.8 8.6 -1.8 20.5 27.4 10.1 11.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 10.5 9.9 7.3 -2.4 18.4 22.4 10.8 12.4 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 10.7 10.3 9.4 -1.8 21.2 27.0 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 9.8 9.5 8.0 -1.9 19.7 27.0 10.0 11.1 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.0 5.9 7.4 -2.1 19.2 28.0 7.7 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.9 9.6 10.0 -1.8 20.2 26.8 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------