***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.0 7.8 8.7 -0.4 42.4 45.8 6.7 8.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.5 7.9 8.6 -0.2 43.3 47.3 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.2 8.2 8.8 -0.3 41.3 46.5 7.0 10.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 2.5 6.5 -0.6 42.4 44.6 1.8 2.7 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.5 7.0 -0.6 41.2 44.5 7.7 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.6 7.4 6.1 -1.0 37.2 43.2 6.9 8.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.1 8.4 -0.3 43.5 46.7 6.4 8.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.1 6.3 -0.8 38.1 43.9 0.6 2.7 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.7 9.3 7.8 -0.5 40.2 45.2 7.6 10.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 8.0 7.0 -0.7 39.3 44.9 7.3 9.7 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.4 6.8 -0.8 39.6 43.7 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.7 8.3 6.6 -1.0 36.9 42.3 7.4 9.7 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.7 6.3 -1.1 35.8 41.1 7.5 9.0 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.2 9.9 8.3 -0.2 43.5 48.3 8.0 11.1 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.2 6.8 6.8 -0.6 42.9 44.4 5.8 8.5 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.6 6.5 -0.9 38.4 43.0 8.1 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.9 8.4 -0.1 45.5 48.5 6.3 8.5 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 6.3 7.0 -0.6 39.7 45.6 6.1 7.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.3 8.2 8.7 -0.2 43.7 47.8 6.3 9.4 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.5 5.2 -0.8 37.0 44.6 3.0 6.3 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 8.4 8.3 -0.4 40.6 45.6 7.4 10.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.6 8.5 0.0 47.8 49.8 5.9 9.0 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.3 8.9 -0.1 43.2 48.1 6.3 9.1 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 8.9 8.1 -0.3 40.5 46.8 7.9 10.4 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 7.5 7.3 -0.5 42.4 45.4 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.0 6.1 -1.2 33.8 40.2 6.9 8.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 8.3 8.1 -0.4 42.1 45.8 7.9 9.3 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.7 6.7 -0.6 42.7 44.5 6.2 9.6 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 3.8 6.3 -0.7 39.2 45.4 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.7 7.9 8.7 -0.3 42.6 46.6 6.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------