***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.3 9.2 9.5 -1.3 34.8 39.6 9.1 11.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.7 7.9 9.5 -1.0 36.1 41.5 7.7 9.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.4 9.6 9.7 -1.2 35.7 41.3 9.1 11.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.3 7.6 -1.2 35.1 41.6 3.9 6.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.6 8.0 -1.2 37.1 41.5 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.4 7.1 -1.4 31.1 39.8 9.4 11.7 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.9 7.8 9.4 -1.1 35.0 40.3 7.7 10.1 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.9 7.3 -1.2 35.6 41.6 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.6 8.7 -1.3 37.4 41.5 10.4 12.4 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.5 9.9 8.0 -1.2 36.4 41.7 9.7 11.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.3 7.9 -1.2 35.7 41.6 10.1 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.7 9.8 7.7 -1.3 34.6 40.7 9.7 11.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.3 7.3 -1.5 32.1 38.9 10.3 12.0 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 9.9 9.2 -1.0 41.1 43.7 9.7 11.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.8 -1.1 36.0 41.9 7.7 9.3 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.1 7.6 -1.4 33.8 40.6 11.1 12.7 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.7 9.3 -0.9 37.5 42.4 7.2 9.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.6 8.5 7.8 -1.2 36.9 42.1 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.5 8.9 9.7 -1.0 36.7 42.5 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 7.4 6.1 -1.2 35.5 41.7 7.0 9.2 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.4 9.1 -1.3 36.6 41.1 9.4 11.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.7 9.5 -0.7 41.2 44.2 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.1 9.8 -0.9 37.9 43.4 8.5 10.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.0 9.0 -1.1 38.2 42.6 10.4 12.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.2 -1.3 34.7 39.8 8.5 11.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.0 7.2 -1.5 32.0 38.1 10.2 11.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.5 8.9 8.9 -1.3 34.5 39.2 8.8 11.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.8 7.8 -1.2 35.9 42.2 8.8 9.5 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.1 7.2 -1.2 36.6 42.0 6.6 8.8 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.9 8.4 9.6 -1.1 35.2 40.7 8.2 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------