***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 10.3 9.6 10.4 -2.3 19.4 26.6 10.9 12.8 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.2 10.5 -2.0 22.2 29.5 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 11.2 10.7 10.5 -2.3 20.7 27.6 11.2 13.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.8 4.0 8.9 -2.0 25.6 30.4 5.1 5.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 10.8 10.6 9.0 -2.3 20.6 28.8 11.0 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 9.7 8.9 7.9 -2.7 20.4 27.9 10.8 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 10.4 9.9 10.3 -2.1 22.3 28.9 10.7 11.8 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 2.0 0.8 8.1 -2.6 19.3 27.4 4.2 5.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 10.9 10.3 9.5 -2.5 18.5 28.3 11.4 13.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 11.0 10.7 8.7 -2.6 18.7 27.7 11.4 12.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 10.8 10.5 8.8 -2.5 19.8 27.6 11.2 12.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 10.4 10.2 8.5 -2.6 19.4 26.5 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 10.4 9.6 8.1 -2.8 18.9 25.4 11.1 13.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 11.4 10.6 9.7 -2.5 19.9 29.2 11.4 13.5 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.7 10.9 9.3 -1.7 26.3 32.6 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 11.2 10.2 8.5 -2.6 20.7 27.2 11.6 13.6 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.5 9.8 10.3 -1.8 24.3 30.9 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 9.9 9.7 8.3 -2.8 19.4 27.4 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.1 10.6 -2.1 22.1 29.5 11.1 12.3 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 7.2 6.4 6.6 -2.8 21.1 27.5 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 10.8 10.5 10.0 -2.4 19.0 27.8 11.2 12.5 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 10.5 10.1 10.5 -1.8 24.6 31.5 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 10.8 10.1 10.6 -2.2 21.2 29.3 11.1 12.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 11.6 10.9 9.5 -2.6 19.8 28.2 11.5 13.8 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 10.2 9.9 9.2 -2.2 21.5 28.0 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 10.4 9.7 8.0 -2.8 17.6 25.0 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 10.4 9.8 9.8 -2.3 20.4 26.8 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 10.6 10.9 9.1 -1.9 25.6 31.2 11.4 12.4 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 6.3 5.8 7.6 -2.9 20.4 27.4 7.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 10.6 10.1 10.5 -2.2 21.4 28.4 10.9 12.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------