***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 11.2 11.4 11.0 -3.4 17.5 20.2 12.8 14.9 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 11.7 11.9 11.1 -3.4 18.2 20.0 13.3 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 12.4 12.3 10.9 -3.7 17.2 19.5 13.2 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 4.7 4.2 8.1 -3.7 17.2 20.3 6.9 9.9 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 12.4 12.2 9.2 -3.9 17.5 19.9 13.6 14.7 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 11.5 10.3 7.2 -4.8 12.8 16.9 13.4 15.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.1 -3.2 17.5 20.4 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 4.2 3.9 8.3 -4.0 16.8 20.9 6.9 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 12.4 12.3 10.3 -3.8 17.0 20.1 13.7 14.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 11.7 11.7 9.0 -4.0 16.6 20.3 13.6 14.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 12.0 11.6 9.0 -4.2 15.1 18.6 14.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 11.2 10.0 8.4 -4.2 13.9 18.6 13.7 14.9 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 12.3 12.0 8.4 -4.5 14.1 17.3 14.1 15.6 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 11.7 11.3 10.5 -3.7 17.8 21.2 13.1 16.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 10.9 10.6 9.4 -3.5 17.4 19.8 13.1 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 13.0 12.8 8.5 -4.4 14.2 17.1 15.0 16.1 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 11.5 11.5 11.0 -3.1 19.0 21.2 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 10.9 10.6 8.8 -4.0 17.2 21.5 12.4 13.6 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 12.0 12.1 11.1 -3.4 18.4 20.0 12.9 14.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 9.5 9.4 7.3 -3.8 19.1 23.0 10.4 13.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 12.2 12.2 10.8 -3.7 17.5 20.3 13.8 14.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 11.9 12.1 11.1 -3.1 19.5 21.1 13.0 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 11.9 11.7 11.0 -3.5 18.3 20.2 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 12.3 12.0 10.2 -3.8 17.6 20.9 13.5 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 12.1 12.0 9.9 -3.3 18.9 22.1 12.9 14.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 11.8 11.0 8.0 -4.2 14.4 18.2 13.4 16.2 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 12.4 12.4 10.7 -3.2 18.1 21.4 13.4 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 10.8 10.4 8.5 -4.0 16.0 18.6 13.4 15.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 8.5 8.1 8.5 -3.7 20.0 23.3 8.9 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 11.7 12.1 11.1 -3.5 17.3 19.5 13.2 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------