***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 1.7 1.4 2.9 -2.2 15.9 20.6 2.3 3.4 4.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 1.3 1.2 2.8 -1.9 21.4 22.4 1.6 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 3.4 3.2 2.6 -2.1 15.5 20.1 3.8 4.3 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 0.4 -2.1 16.6 20.7 -1.2 -1.0 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 0.7 0.3 0.6 -2.2 14.9 19.5 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 15.0 20.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.8 -2.0 21.0 23.0 1.7 2.6 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 -3.6 -4.3 -0.5 -2.1 14.6 20.2 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.1 1.3 -2.1 15.1 20.3 2.2 2.8 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 1.2 0.9 0.1 -2.2 14.5 20.1 1.7 2.4 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 0.7 0.3 0.3 -2.2 13.6 19.0 1.4 2.5 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 -2.2 13.0 18.9 0.6 1.7 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -2.2 13.0 19.4 1.4 2.0 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 2.0 1.7 1.3 -2.1 13.4 20.0 2.5 3.1 4.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.0 -2.0 15.8 20.6 2.0 3.0 3.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.9 -0.1 -2.2 11.8 19.0 2.4 2.9 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.4 1.5 2.7 -1.8 22.5 24.5 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -2.2 13.6 20.6 0.4 1.2 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.8 -1.9 20.3 22.3 2.0 2.4 4.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 -3.2 -3.8 -1.7 -2.2 15.9 21.4 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 1.2 0.8 2.1 -2.2 14.9 20.0 1.9 2.5 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.8 -1.7 22.5 24.5 1.2 1.9 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.2 1.2 2.5 -1.8 18.4 22.2 2.0 2.3 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.1 -2.1 14.0 20.2 1.6 2.2 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.6 1.4 -2.1 16.5 21.0 2.3 2.9 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -2.2 14.5 19.5 1.8 2.2 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.3 2.2 -2.1 16.9 21.4 2.0 3.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 -2.1 15.1 20.3 0.8 1.5 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 -0.9 -2.1 14.7 21.5 -0.4 0.8 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.9 -2.0 18.8 21.7 2.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------