***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.3 2.8 -0.6 43.1 43.2 -0.5 1.3 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.5 2.5 -0.4 43.7 45.3 -0.4 0.5 2.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.0 2.4 -0.6 41.4 43.1 0.8 2.7 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -0.1 -1.0 36.5 40.5 -4.7 -2.6 -1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -0.9 -0.3 0.2 -1.0 36.9 40.4 -0.4 0.3 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 31.7 39.4 -1.7 -0.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -0.7 0.8 2.6 -0.4 43.8 45.1 -0.1 0.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -7.0 -7.3 -0.9 -1.0 33.3 41.5 -7.3 -4.3 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.4 1.0 -0.8 39.9 41.7 -0.1 1.1 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 36.8 41.7 -0.7 0.3 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 35.5 40.2 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -0.5 -1.0 34.7 40.7 -1.8 0.1 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 34.4 39.7 -0.6 0.8 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.5 40.1 45.1 -0.3 1.2 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.1 1.5 0.5 -0.9 39.9 41.6 0.3 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 -1.1 32.6 39.7 0.1 1.3 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 1.8 0.7 2.6 -0.3 44.6 46.3 -0.6 1.1 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -2.3 -1.9 -0.9 -1.0 35.0 42.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.7 2.4 -0.4 43.3 45.2 -0.6 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -6.4 -5.4 -2.1 -1.1 29.1 42.0 -5.4 -4.0 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -0.5 0.2 1.9 -0.7 41.9 42.4 -0.4 0.5 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.2 0.0 2.4 -0.3 44.2 46.6 -0.8 0.6 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 2.1 -0.4 42.3 45.3 -0.7 0.2 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 -0.8 38.0 42.9 -0.7 0.3 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -0.4 0.3 1.0 -0.7 38.9 42.2 0.1 1.2 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 -0.9 32.7 39.7 -0.9 0.9 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 2.0 -0.6 41.6 43.0 -0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -1.0 36.1 40.7 -1.2 0.4 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -4.3 -3.9 -1.4 -1.1 30.9 41.7 -3.7 -2.6 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.0 2.6 -0.5 42.8 44.5 -0.1 1.1 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------