***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.7 3.9 -1.9 28.7 30.0 2.4 3.7 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 0.9 1.1 3.8 -1.7 28.7 30.7 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.7 -1.7 28.9 30.6 3.9 5.1 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 1.5 -1.8 26.8 29.0 -1.6 0.1 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 0.1 1.4 1.7 -1.9 27.8 28.5 1.8 2.6 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 -1.9 22.6 26.6 1.2 2.7 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 1.2 1.3 3.7 -1.8 27.6 30.8 1.9 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -3.7 -4.5 0.5 -2.0 22.6 25.9 -3.3 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 1.8 2.5 2.4 -1.8 30.5 29.4 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.6 1.1 -1.9 26.0 27.9 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 0.8 0.9 1.4 -2.0 26.0 26.8 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 0.1 -0.2 0.9 -2.1 21.7 25.0 0.7 2.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 0.1 -0.2 0.6 -2.1 23.6 25.3 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.9 2.4 -1.7 26.8 30.1 2.9 3.7 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.7 2.0 -1.7 27.9 29.8 2.3 3.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.5 1.2 0.9 -2.0 24.1 25.9 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.6 3.7 -1.6 27.8 31.4 1.9 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 0.0 0.4 0.7 -1.9 23.5 28.3 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 1.2 1.6 3.8 -1.6 28.9 30.9 2.2 3.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 -2.8 -2.7 -0.5 -2.0 20.4 26.5 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 1.0 1.8 3.2 -1.8 29.8 30.2 2.2 3.5 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.2 1.5 3.7 -1.6 27.9 31.5 1.7 2.5 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 1.5 2.3 3.6 -1.6 28.6 31.1 2.5 3.1 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.2 -1.7 26.3 30.0 2.3 3.3 4.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.9 2.4 -1.8 29.3 30.4 2.1 3.2 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 0.3 0.6 0.9 -2.0 20.9 24.7 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 0.8 1.4 3.2 -1.8 29.1 30.5 1.6 3.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.8 26.3 28.4 0.2 1.9 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -0.6 -1.0 0.2 -1.9 22.1 27.8 0.0 1.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 1.2 1.8 3.8 -1.8 28.8 30.3 2.0 3.2 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------