***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 -0.3 -2.2 1.7 -5.0 6.6 9.8 2.8 4.3 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 1.2 -3.0 1.9 -4.5 6.7 10.1 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 3.1 -0.2 1.6 -4.8 6.1 9.7 6.0 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 -0.9 -4.8 -0.2 -4.1 8.2 11.9 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 0.1 -2.0 -0.2 -4.6 7.4 9.5 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -3.9 10.1 12.2 1.3 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 0.7 -2.5 1.9 -4.5 6.8 9.7 3.1 4.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 -3.8 -5.0 -1.1 -4.2 8.3 10.7 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 0.9 -2.1 0.3 -4.6 6.2 8.7 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -4.5 7.6 10.1 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 0.4 -1.3 -0.3 -4.4 7.9 10.0 2.2 3.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 -0.5 -2.0 -0.8 -4.3 7.1 9.5 1.3 2.4 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -4.2 10.6 11.9 1.5 3.1 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 97 3 0 100 2.5 -1.7 0.3 -4.9 5.9 8.9 4.3 5.1 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 0.6 -2.2 0.6 -4.3 6.9 11.1 3.2 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.4 -0.2 -0.7 -4.3 9.1 11.1 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 1.1 -2.3 1.8 -4.3 7.0 10.6 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 0.0 -2.0 -1.3 -4.3 8.4 10.5 1.5 2.5 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 0.9 -2.6 2.0 -4.4 6.6 10.7 3.2 4.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -2.8 -4.0 -2.6 -4.2 8.8 11.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 0.5 -2.7 1.1 -4.9 6.1 9.0 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 -0.1 -2.8 1.9 -4.3 7.7 11.1 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 1.0 -2.1 1.9 -4.2 6.0 10.5 2.9 4.5 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 1.0 -2.1 0.2 -4.6 7.0 9.7 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 1.1 -0.4 0.9 -4.5 7.5 11.1 2.9 4.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 0.7 -1.5 -1.1 -4.4 7.5 10.1 2.2 3.4 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 0.4 -2.1 1.2 -4.7 7.8 10.6 3.0 4.7 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 -0.2 -2.6 0.0 -4.3 8.0 11.5 1.9 2.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 -0.3 -2.8 -1.5 -4.0 9.1 11.7 1.4 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 0.8 -2.6 2.0 -4.6 6.5 9.8 3.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------