***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 41.8 42.5 49.2 109.2 60.4 54.1 29.1 37.1 48.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.8 41.5 43.2 100.9 55.2 49.9 29.7 38.3 46.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 51.2 55.0 50.5 111.9 61.1 55.3 34.6 45.3 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 64.5 65.7 68.5 134.4 71.5 65.1 40.3 51.1 58.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 52.6 55.0 62.5 129.8 69.2 64.0 31.1 48.8 53.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 59.7 71.4 65.8 141.3 76.7 69.8 31.7 36.5 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 26.9 42.3 42.1 100.8 56.1 49.3 29.5 39.1 43.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 86.7 94.2 68.4 130.4 72.3 65.2 48.3 58.4 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 45.4 53.1 60.6 125.0 67.6 62.3 29.8 41.3 52.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 50.2 59.0 68.0 131.2 72.7 65.5 31.9 44.7 55.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 68.3 71.9 64.2 135.9 74.1 67.3 28.7 41.2 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 70.6 70.3 61.1 128.6 71.1 64.5 29.0 45.3 57.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 74.0 84.4 68.5 140.1 76.4 69.2 35.9 47.8 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 73.0 73.6 66.5 119.7 65.8 59.1 52.8 68.4 73.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 59.3 61.2 73.1 142.7 73.4 67.1 31.2 35.4 52.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 54.7 52.2 63.8 136.1 73.9 67.2 34.6 42.0 47.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 46.9 42.7 42.9 98.9 55.7 49.8 28.2 39.7 45.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 55.9 65.3 66.8 122.7 67.9 61.0 42.4 51.6 63.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 45.7 41.9 45.3 103.4 56.1 51.2 32.2 39.2 62.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 65.1 76.5 76.9 118.1 64.8 59.4 47.8 56.9 78.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 46.7 49.0 56.4 120.6 66.5 59.7 37.1 43.5 48.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 52.3 50.4 46.6 100.7 54.9 51.0 32.3 48.4 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 52.3 53.5 49.7 108.5 59.4 53.8 34.0 48.6 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 57.4 61.3 61.9 120.9 66.9 59.7 35.8 50.9 58.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 42.5 52.5 60.1 119.7 63.3 58.6 25.5 37.5 53.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 70.1 75.2 64.7 127.7 72.1 63.7 33.3 44.5 64.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 43.8 44.8 52.0 110.9 59.4 54.6 30.3 40.3 45.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 57.8 63.2 69.1 143.4 74.8 68.5 29.4 37.9 53.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 85.0 86.6 69.5 120.1 66.8 60.2 62.3 78.5 84.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 26.5 36.3 44.3 102.6 56.6 50.3 29.1 33.2 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------