***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.2 12.7 104.5 62.2 52.3 6.4 11.0 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 14.3 11.4 100.2 63.6 51.0 4.4 8.8 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.5 12.2 12.2 103.4 60.9 51.7 7.6 9.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.6 22.5 15.1 112.3 63.6 53.1 5.7 14.6 23.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.2 13.7 108.5 62.6 51.2 6.2 12.5 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.1 22.8 13.5 110.7 62.0 50.2 3.8 13.3 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.7 11.9 107.2 64.5 52.5 4.7 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.1 19.5 13.7 102.5 61.0 48.4 8.8 12.8 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.1 13.9 106.6 61.6 50.9 7.0 10.9 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.9 17.7 13.9 102.0 59.7 48.7 5.5 15.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.4 18.1 12.9 106.1 61.9 49.3 6.2 12.6 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.7 17.7 12.7 105.1 61.6 48.8 1.5 15.6 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.0 22.4 12.9 101.9 59.0 46.9 3.0 19.9 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.8 24.5 14.6 104.0 60.7 50.4 8.1 17.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.7 25.7 15.4 111.4 65.1 53.1 2.3 11.1 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.7 23.6 12.9 106.3 61.7 49.0 4.1 12.6 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.1 14.8 11.5 101.3 63.7 52.2 6.7 10.4 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 15.3 14.3 101.2 58.2 48.6 6.9 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.1 15.5 11.3 98.6 61.8 50.3 6.0 9.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 22.7 17.4 100.4 61.2 48.1 6.1 9.6 28.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.2 13.3 106.5 62.7 51.5 6.1 9.5 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 17.8 12.1 99.1 63.5 51.3 7.9 13.4 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.5 15.7 11.8 101.6 60.4 50.2 5.3 11.6 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.5 16.8 13.8 104.7 59.7 50.5 7.0 12.5 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.3 14.6 108.3 61.6 52.8 4.7 9.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.0 13.2 100.1 59.4 49.2 4.8 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 16.6 13.4 105.4 61.5 52.4 4.1 9.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.9 19.6 14.3 112.9 65.3 52.5 2.6 11.6 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.7 28.0 15.1 100.7 59.2 48.6 7.9 16.0 36.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 14.9 11.7 102.0 62.3 51.6 4.3 8.0 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------