***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.2 11.6 101.6 59.8 50.1 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.3 9.8 90.0 57.4 48.6 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.9 11.1 99.8 60.6 49.8 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 15.1 13.5 103.2 65.5 48.0 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.8 12.1 101.5 62.1 46.6 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.5 12.0 101.0 60.8 48.9 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.9 9.8 93.0 58.2 49.3 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.7 15.4 11.7 95.3 58.0 45.9 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.2 12.3 102.2 63.3 48.0 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.9 11.8 95.5 58.2 45.5 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.5 11.1 97.9 61.0 46.1 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 11.8 11.0 98.0 60.7 48.2 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.4 9.9 11.0 92.5 57.7 44.7 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.0 12.7 90.9 56.2 48.4 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 11.2 14.7 105.6 69.5 48.6 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.4 11.5 100.2 62.2 47.8 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.9 9.9 9.4 86.3 57.0 48.5 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.0 12.1 94.1 56.2 45.8 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.9 9.9 89.7 57.2 48.5 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 10.6 13.7 87.1 52.7 42.8 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.7 12.0 105.7 62.7 49.0 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.7 9.8 83.1 55.7 47.9 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.4 10.3 89.5 56.7 48.5 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.6 12.1 97.7 58.6 48.9 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.4 13.1 102.8 58.2 48.5 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.5 12.4 98.2 59.2 48.5 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.6 12.1 100.4 57.5 49.5 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.6 13.6 13.0 105.0 68.2 48.7 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 14.3 12.6 92.8 55.8 45.8 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.2 10.1 91.9 57.7 48.8 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------