***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.3 10.2 88.3 54.9 48.5 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.1 10.4 92.8 58.9 48.1 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.4 10.4 85.2 55.4 49.2 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.9 12.4 13.2 98.5 59.1 54.3 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.6 12.3 93.6 58.4 52.7 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.3 14.0 108.1 64.0 55.8 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.9 9.7 89.2 58.8 48.0 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.3 24.3 13.3 92.6 60.6 52.5 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.5 12.4 95.5 58.5 53.5 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.1 12.5 90.7 58.9 52.0 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 11.9 89.4 57.9 51.2 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.3 12.6 94.7 60.7 53.0 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.2 12.2 91.3 57.4 50.1 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.9 20.0 13.8 93.6 61.0 51.0 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.4 7.2 12.9 96.6 61.0 53.8 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.9 12.5 97.1 60.5 53.2 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.5 10.4 91.4 60.8 49.2 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.4 13.4 92.4 59.2 52.5 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.9 10.9 93.9 58.4 48.8 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 11.2 14.5 81.5 53.7 47.0 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.1 11.6 91.5 58.8 51.8 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.0 10.9 89.5 57.4 48.0 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 11.6 94.6 58.6 50.4 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.7 9.5 12.6 90.3 59.4 51.8 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.1 6.3 12.4 93.8 57.6 50.2 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.4 14.5 99.1 61.9 54.1 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.9 11.1 91.2 56.1 48.5 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.7 6.6 12.3 96.0 60.4 53.9 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 18.6 13.8 88.5 57.0 50.6 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.7 10.1 89.5 57.2 47.6 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------