***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 4.8 11.5 14.7 148.5 73.5 63.8 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.3 7.3 11.7 124.2 68.6 58.1 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.7 12.6 16.8 167.7 78.6 65.6 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 12.6 17.5 26.8 239.8 88.3 79.9 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 11.5 20.2 24.3 234.0 88.8 78.0 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 6.7 18.3 26.3 275.8 90.8 84.5 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.7 10.8 116.0 67.2 57.1 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 14.1 22.4 29.7 237.1 86.3 80.1 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 10.7 14.2 22.0 211.1 85.2 75.9 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 13.3 18.3 29.8 247.0 88.5 80.7 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.6 15.8 28.4 270.9 89.9 82.7 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.2 13.5 24.8 228.2 84.5 78.7 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 9.5 17.7 32.3 297.6 91.5 84.3 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.3 21.0 25.5 198.2 82.3 70.9 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 8.0 17.1 30.1 295.2 90.7 84.3 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 9.4 15.2 26.9 260.0 88.3 81.4 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.8 11.5 118.9 66.9 57.5 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.2 18.9 27.1 207.5 82.7 76.0 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.5 9.0 13.2 135.9 71.4 60.3 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 14.1 17.9 31.3 208.4 82.6 77.8 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 8.5 12.3 19.5 190.3 83.0 71.8 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.2 13.8 136.0 69.7 60.1 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.6 13.8 16.0 153.7 74.7 63.5 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 13.7 18.2 23.4 200.6 83.0 72.7 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 7.5 11.6 19.9 186.3 80.8 70.7 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 11.5 18.2 24.6 240.3 87.3 79.4 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 3.6 10.2 15.5 155.0 75.1 65.5 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 7.5 14.1 29.4 287.8 90.2 84.0 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 18.6 24.9 28.0 202.6 81.9 75.9 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.6 6.3 12.3 131.9 71.3 59.2 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------