***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.2 12.1 0.2 53.4 53.1 11.0 11.9 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.1 12.0 0.0 50.9 50.8 10.3 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.6 12.3 -0.1 49.2 49.0 11.1 11.8 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.4 9.5 0.2 52.6 53.5 5.2 6.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.1 10.6 -0.1 49.0 48.9 11.4 12.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.5 9.7 0.0 49.4 49.8 10.6 12.5 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.2 12.0 0.1 54.1 53.0 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.2 9.6 -0.5 42.4 43.9 4.2 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.3 11.3 -0.2 47.6 47.6 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.4 10.3 -0.4 44.2 45.2 11.0 11.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.8 11.8 10.8 -0.3 44.8 46.3 11.4 12.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.0 10.2 -0.4 43.5 44.5 11.0 12.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.4 10.3 -0.4 46.5 45.9 11.4 12.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.0 11.4 -0.4 42.4 44.6 11.6 12.0 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.8 10.8 0.4 56.4 56.1 10.1 11.4 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.0 10.4 -0.2 47.3 47.5 12.1 13.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.4 11.8 0.1 53.3 52.3 10.0 10.2 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.5 10.1 -0.5 42.4 43.7 9.9 11.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.2 12.1 -0.2 48.6 48.9 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.7 8.4 -0.6 40.7 42.4 8.4 10.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.1 12.0 0.0 50.0 49.8 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.0 11.8 0.0 50.5 50.3 10.6 11.0 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.3 12.2 -0.3 46.3 46.9 11.1 11.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.0 11.4 -0.4 43.4 44.8 11.5 12.4 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.6 10.9 0.2 53.7 53.2 10.3 11.3 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.0 12.5 9.7 -0.3 44.6 46.2 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.2 11.7 0.2 53.7 53.6 11.0 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.5 11.3 10.1 0.2 52.1 52.9 10.5 11.0 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.8 9.5 -0.6 42.0 42.9 7.7 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.3 12.0 0.0 50.5 50.8 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------