***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.9 8.7 9.5 0.4 49.8 52.3 6.6 8.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.2 9.3 0.3 47.9 51.4 6.9 8.4 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.0 9.9 0.4 49.7 51.8 7.2 9.0 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.5 7.3 0.6 52.9 53.6 1.6 3.2 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.4 8.2 0.4 49.9 52.0 7.6 8.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.6 7.8 0.7 49.6 52.7 7.2 8.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.9 9.3 0.4 48.5 52.0 6.2 8.1 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 1.8 7.8 0.3 45.3 51.5 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.2 8.9 0.3 48.3 51.8 8.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 8.5 8.3 0.3 46.9 51.5 6.9 9.0 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.7 8.8 8.3 0.3 47.5 51.4 7.1 9.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.0 8.1 0.3 45.4 51.3 7.7 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.3 8.2 7.8 0.4 47.0 51.2 7.6 8.8 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.2 9.7 9.3 0.3 47.0 51.5 8.1 9.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.1 7.9 0.6 54.2 54.2 6.5 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.1 8.1 0.4 47.8 51.7 8.1 9.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.1 9.1 0.3 48.9 51.7 6.7 8.1 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.3 8.4 0.3 46.3 51.5 6.3 7.6 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.7 9.6 0.3 47.7 51.3 7.0 8.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 4.9 6.8 0.3 44.8 51.6 3.1 6.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.1 9.4 0.4 50.1 52.4 7.8 9.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.7 9.2 0.3 49.0 51.9 7.0 8.7 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.9 9.9 0.3 48.1 51.5 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.3 9.2 0.3 47.7 51.3 8.3 9.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.2 8.2 0.5 50.6 52.8 6.8 8.2 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.1 7.7 0.5 46.1 52.2 6.7 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.8 9.1 0.4 49.1 52.4 7.2 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 7.7 0.6 53.0 53.8 7.1 9.3 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.0 7.9 0.3 45.5 51.5 3.3 6.1 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.2 9.4 0.3 48.0 51.5 6.4 8.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------