***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.0 13.0 0.2 49.5 51.4 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.5 12.9 0.0 48.2 49.7 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.0 13.2 -0.1 45.6 48.9 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.0 10.2 0.3 51.7 52.4 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.0 11.5 -0.1 46.2 48.9 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.5 10.4 -0.2 40.2 48.5 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.3 12.9 0.2 50.8 51.5 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 4.7 10.4 -0.5 39.5 45.2 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.5 12.6 12.3 -0.1 45.1 48.4 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.6 11.8 11.2 -0.4 41.5 46.4 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.3 11.8 -0.3 42.6 46.9 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.1 12.4 11.0 -0.5 40.6 45.3 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.5 11.3 -0.5 38.7 45.8 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.1 12.4 -0.3 44.0 46.6 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.2 11.7 0.3 53.1 53.3 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.0 11.4 -0.3 42.3 47.3 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.4 12.6 0.1 49.5 50.5 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.2 10.8 -0.5 41.9 46.1 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.8 13.0 -0.1 46.2 48.6 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.1 9.1 -0.6 39.4 44.7 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.5 12.9 0.0 45.7 49.7 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.1 12.3 12.7 0.0 48.6 49.6 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.6 12.3 13.1 -0.3 44.5 47.6 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.4 12.3 -0.3 43.3 46.9 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.3 11.9 0.2 52.6 51.4 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.8 10.4 -0.4 39.4 46.5 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.3 12.6 0.2 51.9 51.7 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.2 10.9 0.2 50.1 51.7 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.4 10.3 -0.6 40.1 45.1 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.7 12.9 0.0 48.3 49.9 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------