***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 15.7 16.1 15.6 0.6 58.0 57.7 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 15.1 15.3 15.5 0.3 56.6 55.5 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 96 4 100 15.5 15.9 15.4 -0.1 51.8 51.3 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 9.8 9.8 12.3 0.3 55.4 53.9 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 96 4 100 15.8 15.7 13.6 -0.2 49.8 48.9 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 15.6 14.9 12.3 -0.4 46.9 46.9 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 14.7 15.2 15.6 0.6 59.7 58.4 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.1 6.8 11.8 -1.2 39.7 39.6 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 96 4 100 16.0 15.5 14.4 -0.4 47.5 47.2 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 16.1 14.0 12.7 -0.9 43.0 42.8 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 16.3 15.1 13.9 -0.6 46.1 45.5 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 15.8 14.6 12.6 -1.0 42.0 41.6 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 15.5 14.9 13.5 -0.9 44.1 43.6 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.5 15.3 14.2 -0.9 46.0 44.1 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 15.4 16.0 14.8 0.7 60.6 58.6 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 16.5 16.1 13.4 -0.5 46.7 46.1 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 13.8 14.6 15.2 0.6 60.0 58.1 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 15.3 12.9 12.1 -1.2 39.9 40.3 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 15.6 15.8 15.4 0.0 53.6 52.6 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 10.3 10.3 -1.5 35.7 36.4 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 16.0 16.0 15.3 0.0 51.2 51.0 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.2 15.6 15.2 0.3 57.7 55.6 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 15.7 15.7 15.2 -0.3 50.8 48.7 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 16.3 14.2 14.1 -0.9 44.4 43.6 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 15.1 15.6 14.6 0.5 57.6 56.8 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 16.4 14.5 12.1 -0.9 42.4 41.0 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 15.7 15.8 15.3 0.7 59.2 58.5 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 97 3 100 16.0 16.0 13.2 0.2 54.5 52.8 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.3 9.5 11.5 -1.3 38.0 38.6 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 15.1 15.3 15.5 0.3 55.7 55.0 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------