***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.2 3.8 0.8 55.4 55.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.4 3.4 0.6 55.8 54.2 -0.2 0.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.8 3.7 0.7 55.1 54.5 1.4 2.8 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.1 1.3 0.8 58.1 55.9 -4.2 -2.0 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.3 1.7 0.7 56.9 55.1 -0.3 0.8 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 55.3 57.0 -0.9 0.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.6 3.4 0.7 56.3 54.9 0.1 1.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -3.2 -3.3 0.2 0.8 54.3 55.5 -6.7 -4.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.4 2.0 0.7 55.5 54.5 0.6 1.2 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 53.4 54.5 -0.4 1.1 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.7 55.3 55.2 -0.5 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.8 55.3 56.0 -1.5 0.7 1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.9 55.4 56.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.5 1.9 0.6 53.9 54.4 -0.1 2.2 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.9 2.3 0.8 58.6 56.7 1.2 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.3 0.8 0.8 56.4 56.0 0.6 1.6 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 1.8 1.6 3.3 0.7 54.6 54.8 -0.1 1.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 52.1 54.4 -1.1 -0.2 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.2 3.4 0.6 55.5 54.3 0.2 0.8 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.5 -0.8 1.0 53.7 56.0 -5.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.3 3.1 0.7 56.4 55.0 -0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.0 3.2 0.7 53.9 54.7 -0.3 0.6 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.0 3.4 0.7 55.6 54.7 -0.5 0.6 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.4 1.0 1.5 0.6 52.0 54.1 -0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.1 2.7 0.8 55.3 55.9 0.3 0.9 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.9 56.1 56.5 -0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 2.3 1.7 3.5 0.9 55.2 55.5 -0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.8 57.4 55.8 -0.4 0.7 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 52.7 54.8 -3.6 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.9 3.5 0.7 56.1 54.4 0.2 1.4 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------