***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.4 6.6 0.8 57.2 56.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 3.6 3.3 6.0 0.6 56.2 55.2 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.1 6.5 0.7 56.7 55.8 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.5 1.2 4.5 1.3 61.0 60.5 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.9 5.1 1.0 61.5 57.5 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 2.7 3.7 3.0 1.0 61.2 58.8 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.5 3.4 6.0 0.6 55.4 55.2 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.1 -0.6 2.8 0.6 52.9 54.7 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.2 5.1 1.0 62.9 58.3 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 3.6 0.8 57.4 56.3 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.1 4.6 1.0 61.1 58.0 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.4 3.6 0.6 52.1 54.5 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 3.0 3.1 3.4 0.7 54.5 55.6 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 4.6 0.7 57.0 54.7 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.1 4.5 6.0 1.5 63.7 63.9 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.6 4.1 1.0 59.7 57.9 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.6 5.7 0.6 55.5 54.9 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.9 3.0 0.7 55.3 54.7 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.8 6.0 0.6 56.4 55.3 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.1 1.5 0.4 50.1 51.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.5 6.1 0.9 60.5 57.3 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.3 3.2 5.8 0.5 55.5 54.7 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.9 5.9 0.6 57.3 55.2 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.9 4.6 0.7 57.0 55.6 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.5 6.0 0.9 59.6 57.2 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.9 3.0 0.5 49.3 52.8 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.8 6.3 0.8 57.9 56.1 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.9 4.7 1.3 60.9 60.9 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.8 2.4 0.6 53.7 54.2 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 4.1 3.8 6.2 0.6 56.1 55.4 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------